Well, the forecasters got it wrong again. Trump trumps America and the world’s superpower swings to the right, with the GOP taking the White House, the Senate and Congress. This wasn’t the end of the Trump joke, as all the pundits predicted: it’s the end of the Democratic era.
How did they get it so wrong again? It’s a question the pundits are asking the pollsters—but it highlights the key element of forecasting: get your facts right. If your basic data is flawed—because in your heart you don’t believe any nation, let alone the greatest in the world, can elect Donald Trump and you let that affect your decision-making—your results are wrong. Forecast5 helps to get your facts right and to keep your scenarios realistic.
Funny, isn’t it? Right up to Thursday, June 23 this year we were bombarded with scare stories and wide blue sky stories, depending on whether you felt the UK should remain in the EU or not, every day—but we were reassured because the polls told us it wasn’t going to happen, just as they did in America, in spite of the emails.
We in Britain had the political Punch and Judy show with the key figures in both main parties being knocked about. After that, Britain was going to Brexit. What would it mean? Well, we don’t know until big brother, the EU tells us—and they won’t do that until we invoke Article 50, saying we definitely do want to leave. So now the media has pretty much nothing to say about it.
As you would expect, this is not the case with Forecast5—and we have some good news for fleet-fingered accountants. Being a New Zealand based package, we have been affected by the fact that Brexit has driven the pound to a 30 year low and prices of your favourite forecasting software will rise on November 18. But until then we are holding prices and you are effectively receiving a 20% discount. Please check out our free 21-day trial and sign up before New Zealand invokes its own Article 50 on us. Check our prices: read on.
Brexit also means that Britain lost its AAA credit rating so the cost of government borrowing has gone up. The size of the deficit wavers depending on who’s announcing it but ukpublicspending reckons it’s £40 billion so any increase there isn’t good news.
Share prices rose steeply on the back of a falling pound. With this morning’s surprise result in America, all bets are off once again as to where the world’s stock of wealth is heading. But the financial world is watching the dollar and the Dow Jones closely and they are hunched over their Forecast5 screens as they work out their “What if?” scenarios and adjust their budgets.
Are you one of us? Just to cloud your judgement, rather than your forecasting, further, Henry Kissinger once said: “When you first meet Ronald Reagan and you spend 30 minutes with him, you say to yourself: ‘And this is the man who is leading the free world? We’re done for!’ But he always made the right decision.”
Thanks to the BBC for the graph and some data.